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After netting nine goals in his opening seven fixtures, City forward Erling Haaland has kicked off the season with incredible momentum.

Although this isn't his best start to a season - he registered 11 strikes in his first seven games in 2022-23 and ten in the previous campaign - it still puts him with a three-goal lead in the early running for this season's Premier League Golden Boot.

The reality that zero of his nine conversions have been from the penalty spot makes it all the more impressive.

Why Haaland Stands Out

Of course, injury could definitively intervene in the eventual Golden Boot winner, but there are two primary explanations why Haaland is such a clear frontrunner for the prize so early in the season.

First, the quantity of strikes he has currently registered - and, of similar importance, the quantity and caliber of chances he is getting.

Secondly, the modest opening his usual rivals for the prize have made.

Expected Goals Analysis

A attacker's expected goals metric (xG) signifies how many goals a Premier League player has historically scored from the quantity and caliber of opportunities he's received.

It is not a figure arbitrarily chosen by statistics boffins, but by English top-flight records.

When examining at players' xG in the English top division so far this campaign from open play, the Scandinavian attacker is getting so many more quality chances to convert than any other player.

In fact, even if Haaland wasn't superior at scoring from situations than anyone else in the division, he would nevertheless have converted over double the amount goals as all other players.

Opportunity Analysis

This is illustrated by examining the number and quality of chances that footballers have received in the Premier League so far.

Haaland has attempted 29 efforts so far this term, a dozen more than any other player.

Interestingly, this is not particularly unusual for him - he had previously registered more non-penalty shots at this juncture in the last two seasons (30 in the 2023-24 season and 34 in the 2024-25 campaign).

However, what's unprecedented even for him is the standard of scoring situations he has had this campaign. His shots have had an chance quality metric of 0.27 on average.

This number represents is that footballers have traditionally scored the shots he has had at a 27% success ratio.

Of players to take at ten or more efforts, only Blues playmaker Enzo Fernandez has had simpler scoring situations to convert per attempt - thanks to a few simple finishes against the Hammers and Seagulls.

City striker's xG statistic of 0.27 is considerably superior than the 0.17 expected goals per effort he had at the opening of last term.

In short, the opportunities he has had in this campaign have been significantly more straightforward to convert from in a realigned Citizens squad than those at the opening of last term.

Previous Season Assessment

Opening a term so impressively is, as noted earlier, typical for Haaland. After seven games last campaign he had scored 10 goals - four additional compared to every other footballer and half-dozen more than Mohamed Salah.

However, it was the Reds attacker who won the Golden Boot with twenty-nine strikes, seven additional compared to the Manchester City striker.

During the current term, while Haaland has begun spectacularly, Salah has scored half the number goals and had half the scoring situations (xG) than at this point in the previous campaign.

Actually this has been the quietest start to a English top-flight campaign the Egypt forward has made.

Competitors' Modest Opening

It isn't only Salah who has started slowly either. If we look at the highest eleven attackers in the English top division last term, Haaland has registered an equal amount goals as the other 10 players combined so far.

Whether due to physical problems - several key attackers - protracted transfer stories in Alexander Isak's case or just due to the fact that their clubs have faced difficulties (several proven attackers), Haaland's probable competitors in the race for the Golden Boot have underperformed so far.

Continental Scoring Title Battle

While Haaland looks the distinct favorite for the English top scorer award, what about the European top scorer prize that is given to the footballer scoring the most in the continent's elite divisions?

That race is far more competitive at this initial phase because Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have likewise begun in superb fashion, with eleven and nine strikes respectively.

The reality Haaland has netted on numerous occasions and has the top chance quality metric of the three players despite not attempting any penalties positions him as the favourite.

However, because the two continental superstars are two of the best finishers in European football in terms of outperforming their chance quality metrics, the race is certainly on.