‘The fear was immense’: the militant group exploits fragmented politics to retake territory in Somalia

On a night at the start of July, Maryan Abdikadir Geedi resolved it was finally time to abandon her modest store in the town of Moqokori.

Despite being aware of the swift advances made by the Islamist militant movement, the middle-aged woman had wished to remain. After her marriage in 2013, Geedi had seen control over the town alternate between sides often.

“As the rain arrives and departs, so does control over Moqokori, but this time it was distinct,” Geedi said.

Since launching their offensive in February, the group has swept through a expanse of Somalia, taking back all the areas it surrendered to a coalition of official troops and allied tribal militias backed by US and Turkish air support in 2023, and adding more. During the summer, the fighting had extended to within 40km (25 miles) of the capital city. Some observers forecast the city might fall.

“The fear was immense. Rumors began circulating that [al-Shabaab] were moving forward. Once the terror became unbearable, I resolved to evacuate,” said the resident, who made her way to the town of a nearby community, 90km away, with her family of eleven.

Over the past few weeks, battle lines have settled, though government security forces are still on the defensive. There is a construction boom in Mogadishu, and rarely does anyone think the city will be captured by the militants.

Though the US has intensified airstrikes against the group and other militant groups in the region, the US government has indicated it will not send back the hundreds of special forces pulled out during Donald Trump’s first term.

In lieu of this, countries such as the Republic of Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Uganda have dispatched military assistance over the last several years, while the AU force continues to deploy numerous troops. The Arab Republic of Egypt is now dispatching a significant force too.

Absent such backing, official troops would fall apart, experts believe.

“The situation is a deadlock,” said Samira Gaid. “Al-Shabaab are not focused on taking Mogadishu. They control a lot of smaller towns under their control and the majority of the countryside. We have been stuck here for a while … and we will be stuck with it for as long as the government has the advantage offered by international forces.”

The advances of the recent al-Shabaab offensive has struck a heavy hit to the morale of divided military units and the administration of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who promised “comprehensive battle” against the militants after taking power in 2022.

“I’ve lost 20 friends and have been hurt in battle multiple times,” said one long-serving trooper in the urban center of Beledweyne.

“I’ve fought in Beera Yabaal, Aboorey, Yasooman, Mabaax, Ceel Qooxle, Adan Yabaal, Masjid Cali Gaduud and Daaru Nicma. Since then, all these areas have been retaken by al-Shabaab,” he said. “[Al-Shabaab fighters] are convinced if they die, heaven awaits them, while most soldiers … aim to receive their modest pay and return to their families.”

The serviceman said he was concerned by the swift progress made by al-Shabaab in recent months but fears worse is to come if nothing is done now to stop the insurgent progress.

“Currently [al-Shabaab] are in a situation where they can transport combatants and resources nationwide as due to seizing strategic towns in the region. This places numerous other locations in south and central Somalia at danger of being lost. They are moving fast,” he said.

Observers point to the state’s vulnerabilities as the key factor of the militants’ recent success.

“The situation with al-Shabaab on the frontlines is consistently shaped by the overall governance and safety context and that is very poor at the moment,” said an east Africa specialist.

“There are major splits in the nation and these make it very difficult for federal government, its forces and international forces to organize anti-militant operations. The group are exploiting a very fragmented political landscape at this time.”

Ongoing monetary backing for the $160m a year AU mission in Somalia is also uncertain, which “has an impact on military activities,” the expert said.

Three weeks after the capture of Moqokori, the militants captured the key settlement of a vital location, which triggered concern throughout the nation.

“With each day that passed increasing numbers evacuated. Dwellings were left empty, shops and commercial areas became vacant,” said Nimo Abdi Barre.

With her husband and six children, Nimo made her way to the outskirts of town, where they managed to catch a ride on a lorry en route to the city of the provincial capital – the main city of Hirshabelle province.

“My kids were ill and crying. Compounding this were concerns of IEDs and landmines on the route. Spiritual conviction is what got me through,” she said.

She has remained in Beledweyne, which the government have so far successfully defended.

“I’m here with family but at the same time nothing is worse then being displaced on your native land,” she said. “I want to return home but it remains to be seen if I will have the opportunity.”